Guest contribution by Osman Bahadir Dinçer

(Originally published on Security and Defence Agenda).

The Mesopotamian basin, namely Iraq and Syria, is descending into an increasingly complex and chaotic period. Only by understanding how it has come to this point can we try to find more viable policy options. Ascribing the roots of the problem solely to the organisation known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will likely fail to produce correct solutions.

The government deadlock in Iraq, Iraq’s outgoing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s alienating policies, sectarian conflict, lack of vision by local religious and political actors, the shift from de-Ba’athification to de-Sunnification, involvement of regional power proxies, all indicate that an ISIS- type organization would have emerged in any case.